THE RETAIL AND DISTRIBUTION GASOLINE MARKET IN BRAZIL - A STUDY OF VARIATION PRICE BEHAVIORS

Aloisio S. N. Filho, Thiago Barros Murari, Marcelo A. Moret

Resumo


In this paper evaluates the effects in the gasoline prices after the Brazilian downstream oil chain liberation, in late 1990s. That stage meant that the Brazilian govern, that no longer setting the maximum and minimum values of all fuels. For this purpose, the gasoline type C prices were collected from fifteen relevant cities in five economic regions of Brazil, between the years 2005 and 2014. The sequences of computational techniques were applied on these datasets. The stationary and linearity for variation prices time series were analyzed in all cities and, also, the correlations among all cities in order to recognize the times series patterns. Furthermore, the Cumulative Sum control (CUMSUM) chart was used to detect smaller parameter shifts on the distribution time series. Our results reveled distinct patterns for middle of 2005 and the middle of 2006, and also for the first months of 2011 and the middle of 2012. Reinforcing the idea of the Brazilian retail and distribution are governed strongly by exogenous factors. This makes a conventional analysis difficult to be used. Once, the Brazilian downstream fuel chain suggests to be a complexity system.

Palavras-chave


gasoline price; statistic tests; CUMSUM analysis

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21575/25254782rmetg2018vol3n2563

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Direitos autorais 2018 Aloisio S. N. Filho, Thiago Barros Murari, Marcelo A. Moret

Revista Mundi Engenharia, Tecnologia e Gestão ISSN 2525-4782

Qualis: B4 - Interdisciplinar, B5 - Geografia, B5 - Administração Pública e de Empresas, Ciências Contábeis e Turismo, B5 - Comunicação e Informação, B5 - Engenharias III

 

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